Audit Memo 3: Robustness Assessment
CEVE 421/521 Final Project
Draft Material
This content is under development and subject to change.
Overview
Due: Friday of Week 12
This memo examines how your chosen climate plan addresses uncertainty and robustness. You will analyze the Uncertainties (X) acknowledged and evaluate whether the plan’s recommendations are robust to deep uncertainty.
Learning Objectives
By completing this memo, you will demonstrate your ability to:
- Identify and categorize uncertainties in climate planning
- Assess whether a plan adequately addresses deep uncertainty
- Apply robustness concepts to critique real-world decision-making
Requirements
Submit a 1-2 page memo (PDF) containing:
1. Uncertainty Mapping
Identify the key uncertainties affecting the plan:
| Uncertainty | Type | How Addressed |
|---|---|---|
| Climate projections | Deep (epistemic) | Multiple scenarios? Single projection? |
| Population growth | Parametric | Sensitivity analysis? |
| Damage functions | Structural | Acknowledged? |
Categorize uncertainties as:
- Parametric: Known unknowns with estimable ranges
- Structural: Model form uncertainty
- Deep: Fundamental disagreement or unknown unknowns
2. Robustness Assessment
Evaluate how the plan handles uncertainty:
| Robustness Element | Present? | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Multiple scenarios | Yes/No | Which scenarios? How selected? |
| Sensitivity analysis | Yes/No | What parameters varied? |
| Adaptive strategies | Yes/No | Trigger points? Decision rules? |
| Worst-case analysis | Yes/No | Regret minimization? |
Address:
- Does the plan optimize for a single “best guess” or consider a range of futures?
- Are there provisions for adapting if conditions differ from expectations?
- What vulnerabilities might emerge under scenarios not considered?
3. Robustness Critique
In 1-2 paragraphs, provide your overall assessment:
- Strengths: What does the plan do well in handling uncertainty?
- Weaknesses: Where is the plan most vulnerable to surprise?
- Recommendations: What specific improvements would enhance robustness?
Submission
Submit your memo as a PDF to Canvas by 11:59 PM on the due date.
Grading Rubric
| Criterion | Points |
|---|---|
| Uncertainties clearly identified and categorized | 30 |
| Robustness assessment thorough and accurate | 30 |
| Constructive critique with specific recommendations | 20 |
| Professional writing and formatting | 20 |
| Total | 100 |