Intro to Climate Risk Management

Dr. James Doss-Gollin

Monday, January 12, 2026

Decisions We Face

Today

1. Decisions We Face

2. Frameworks and Concepts

3. About Us

4. About the Course

5. Logistics

Example Decisions

Target: 1:01. Hook: start with concrete decisions to motivate the course. Move through examples quickly (~1 min each).

Update land use / zoning regulations?

: Satija et al. (2016)

Example Decisions

How to size stormwater infrastructure?

: Doss-Gollin

Example Decisions

How high to elevate a house for proactive flood protection?

: Allison Lee / Houston Public Media

Example Decisions

Require weatherization of privately owned electricity infrastructure?

: Jonathan Cutrer / Flickr.

Example Decisions

How to prioritize grid hardening for a growing, electrifying city?

: Wikimedia Commons / CC-BY-3.0

Frameworks and Concepts

Today

1. Decisions We Face

2. Frameworks and Concepts

3. About Us

4. About the Course

5. Logistics

Your Turn

Target: 1:06. Pause for thinking, then invite responses. Listen for: data, models, economics, optimization.

Tip

How would you help a decision-maker choose the “best” option? What tools or frameworks would you reach for?

Foundations We’ll Draw On

Target: 1:08. Connect to what students said. These are the theoretical pillars of the course.

• Economic theory: utility, welfare, cost-benefit analysis
• Stochastic optimization: optimal decisions under uncertainty
• Uncertainty quantification: characterizing what we don’t know
• Robust decision making: strategies that work across scenarios
• Engineering systems analysis: modeling complex systems

Climate

Target: 1:10. Quick definition – don’t belabor.

The slowly varying aspects of the atmosphere–hydrosphere–land surface system.

AMS Glossary of Meteorology

: USGS Water Cycle

Risk Framework

Target: 1:12. IPCC risk framework: Risk = f(Hazard, Exposure, Vulnerability). Point out all three components.

: IPCC AR5 WG2

Climate Risks

Target: 1:14. Quick brainstorm – call on a few students.

Your turn!

What climate risks have you heard of?

Climate Risk Management

Target: 1:17. Another quick brainstorm. Reveal fragments after hearing responses.

Your turn!

What climate risk management strategies have you heard of?

• Financial instruments (e.g., insurance)
• Floodproof buildings
• Zoning codes
• Major infrastructure
• Improve emergency planning

XLRM Framework

Target: 1:20. Key framework for the semester. Will revisit many times. X-L-R-M mnemonic.

We’ll use XLRM to structure our thinking about decisions:

• X = eXogenous uncertainties (what we can’t control)
• L = Levers (decisions we can make)
• R = Relationships (how the system works)
• M = Metrics (what we care about)

About Us

Today

1. Decisions We Face

2. Frameworks and Concepts

3. About Us

4. About the Course

5. Logistics

About Me

Target: 1:22.

Dr. James Doss-Gollin

• Assistant Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering
• dossgollin-lab.github.io
• jdossgollin@rice.edu
• Office hours Wednesday 12-1 (before class) or by appointment

Your turn

Target: 1:27. Brief intros—name and background.

Let’s go around quickly:

1. Name / what you prefer to be called
2. Year and major / research area

About the Course

Today

1. Decisions We Face

2. Frameworks and Concepts

3. About Us

4. About the Course

5. Logistics

Course goals

Target: 1:30. Transition to course logistics.

Climate risk management is a very broad field. We will:

1. Survey how it is implemented in different fields
2. Develop a deep understanding of how to assess proposed climate risk strategies
3. Apply these methods to a real-world problem

Final Project

Target: 1:32. Emphasize “expert consultants” – they’re practicing a marketable skill.

In small teams, you’ll act as expert consultants auditing a real-world climate plan.

• Three Audit Memos: Analyze the plan’s framework, evidence, and robustness
• Executive Briefing: Present your findings in Week 14
• Written Report: Due during finals week

Three modules

Target: 1:34. Quick overview – they’ll see this structure repeated.

1. Risk Analysis (Weeks 1-5): Characterize hazards and quantify uncertainty
2. Decision Analysis (Weeks 6-9): Evaluate options under uncertainty
3. Optimization Under Uncertainty (Weeks 10-13): Find robust strategies

Week 14: Final Project Presentations

Class structure: Weekly rhythm

Target: 1:36. Emphasize no laptops Mon/Wed—this is intentional for discussion quality.

Day	Activity	Laptops?
Monday	Lecture	No
Wednesday	Quiz + Paper Discussion	No
Friday	Lab Studio	Yes

No laptops Mon/Wed helps us focus on discussion. Exceptions: tablet note-taking or documented accommodations.

The syllabus is online!

• Course website: https://ceve-421-521.github.io/
• Syllabus: https://ceve-421-521.github.io/syllabus/
• Read it by Wednesday!
• Questions? Ask now or later!

Grading

CEVE 421 (Undergrad)

Category	Weight
Quizzes	20%
Exams (3 × 20%)	60%
Final Project	20%

CEVE 521 (Graduate)

Category	Weight
Quizzes	15%
Exams (3 × 15%)	45%
Final Project	20%
Seminar Leadership	20%

Graduate students: Discussion leadership

CEVE 521 Requirement

You will lead one Wednesday discussion session.

• Design an active learning experience—not just a presentation
• Contact me to schedule your session
• This signals to everyone: Wednesdays are active, not passive

About those exams

No cumulative final!

• Exam 1 (Week 6): Covers Module 1 (Risk Analysis)
• Exam 2 (Week 9): Covers Module 2 (Decision Analysis)
• Exam 3 (Finals Week): Covers Module 3 only

Finals week = Exam 3 + Written Report

About the labs

Labs are ungraded but essential:

• Solutions posted immediately for self-correction
• Wednesday quizzes may include lab content
• Exams will test your ability to apply these methods

You may attend labs in-person or on Zoom.

A community of learning

Target: 1:45.

• We all benefit from a diverse, safe, welcoming, and inclusive environment
• Analysis is not value neutral
• Assume good faith and engage in good faith yourself

AI and LLMs

Target: 1:47.

• LLMs are useful for some tasks, notably coding, if you really know what you’re doing. You should learn to use them appropriately.
• Your use should be guided by purpose (here: learning!)
• I want us to discuss how we use these tools rather than to police your use.

Full policy: ceve-421-521.github.io/ai.html

Accommodations

If you have a documented disability, scheduling conflicts, or otherwise need accommodations, please let me know as soon as possible.

Viruses are circulating and everyone’s immune system is different. If you need others to wear a mask to protect you, please let me know – no health disclosures needed.

Logistics

Today

1. Decisions We Face

2. Frameworks and Concepts

3. About Us

4. About the Course

5. Logistics

Reading for Wednesday

Two articles on flood risk management in New Jersey:

• Frank (2022)
• Crawford (2025)

Readings and guiding questions are on the class website

• Come prepared for discussion
• Quiz should be easy if you do the reading!
• PDFs also available on Canvas

Lab 1: Friday

• Julia setup and “Hello World”
• Start early! Installation can be tricky.
• Friday lab session is for troubleshooting and Q&A

This Week’s To-Dos

Target: 1:50. End on time. Repeat key actions: read syllabus, do reading, start Lab 1 setup.

Before Wednesday

1. Read the syllabus
2. Complete the reading (Frank (2022) and Crawford (2025))

Before Friday

3. Start Lab 1 — complete the “Before Lab” setup steps

References

Crawford, S. (2025, December 5). Floods and Storms Are Ravaging the Jersey Shore. Why Do We Keep Building It Back? Retrieved December 5, 2025, from https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-features/floods-storms-jersey-shore-beach-rebuilding-1235477927/

Frank, T. (2022, August 22). Bold New Jersey Shore Flood Rules Could Be Blueprint for Entire U.S. Coast. Scientific American. Retrieved from https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/bold-new-jersey-shore-flood-rules-could-be-blueprint-for-entire-u-s-coast/

Satija, N., Collier, K., & Shaw, A. (2016, December 7). Boomtown, flood town. ProPublica: Hell and High Water. Retrieved from https://projects.propublica.org/houston-cypress/